The Fourth War


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THE FOURTH WAR

These industrial revolutions ultimately changed the way we perceive, live, and act.

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This seems to be a reasonably exciting moment for all. Made in China , a strategic industrial plan issued by the Chinese government in , may ultimately be judged as an iconic event that ignited the fuse of the present U. Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access.

Yet, China is still far behind developed countries such as the United States in terms of industrial structure, capacity efficiency, and particularly core technologies and key components. That may partially explain why the U. In fact, China has made surprising quantitative achievements and a number of limited qualitative ones as well like technological achievements by Huawei and other leading Chinese high-tech companies in its grand national industrial rise.

This, however, might have been a strategically alarming issue for the United States. If China continues to realize more qualitative achievements as it indeed has been trying to do so, then who will be the true leader in the fourth industrial revolution that may once again fundamentally change the political, economic, and social landscape of the world? The same question may also go to China, in a more specific context: How would China perceive and act in the new era that might be deeply changed by the incoming fourth industrial revolution?

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As the U. A question then remains: What role will the United States continue to play? There may be fewer of them, but they are much stealthier, carry more devastating weaponry, and go on more frequent and longer deployments than before. The submarines of the Russian Federation are one of the most difficult threats the United States has faced. This threat is significant, and it is only growing in complexity and capacity. The new maritime doctrine tells us that Russia will counter our existing ASW technologies; challenge U. Furthermore, Russia is rapidly closing the technological gap with the United States.

It has created an advanced military designed to overcome our advantages and exploit our weaknesses—this is the epitome of asymmetric warfare. Nowhere is this more evident than in the maritime and especially underwater domain. Russia rapidly is building and deploying more advanced and significantly quieter attack submarines and frigates armed with the long-range Kalibr cruise missile including six new Kilo-class diesel-electric attack submarines destined for the Black Sea.

As demonstrated last December by Kalibr launches into Syria from the Eastern Mediterranean, Russian leaders will use such weapons at will, without the same qualms we have about collateral damage. The clear advantage that we enjoyed in antisubmarine warfare during the Cold War is waning.

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Russia is claiming maritime battlespace across Europe and deploying forces outside Russian borders. An interlocking system of Russian coastal missiles, interceptor aircraft, air-defense systems, surface ships, and submarines now threatens all maritime forces in the Baltic, as well as our NATO allies in Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia—who no longer control even their own coastlines unless Russian leaders allow them to do so. Russian forces deployed to Syria are growing steadily, and Russia has constructed military bases in the Arctic, militarizing and claiming large swaths of it, in contravention of customary international law.

No longer is the maritime space uncontested. For the first time in almost 30 years, Russia is a significant and aggressive maritime power. In his extensive academic research on naval innovation, Owen R.

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Cote, Jr. This is not a kinetic fight. It is a struggle between Russian forces that probe for weakness, and U.

Just like in the Cold War, the stakes are high. With our allies and partners in NATO and across the globe, we present a broad and united front against any potential Russian threats. Our maritime partnerships yield a global network of navies that together form the greatest maritime force for peace ever known. NATO exercises demonstrate our unity superbly. For example, on 7 June , 17 nations, with 49 ships, more than 60 aircraft, and a vast array of ground forces, demonstrated their abilities to operate together to defend the Baltic region in BALTOPS.

This exercise, in its 43rd year, made it clear that the United States, NATO, and partner nations have an unwavering commitment to protect themselves by acting in concert. Similarly, Sea Breeze sent a clear signal to Russia that the United States and its allies will not back down in the Black Sea region.

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Eighteen ships from 11 nations Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Moldova, Romania, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States demonstrated the will and ability to operate together to achieve maritime security and conduct air defense and antisubmarine warfare in the Black Sea. A variety of policy and resource shifts have been enacted that signal our resolve to Russia. For example, the U. To do so, we must engage and conduct operations forward more deliberately, more strategically, and with more forethought—and in ways that encourage responsible behavior by Russia while still deterring Russian belligerence.

From a diplomatic perspective, we can find areas of common interest.


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One of the most obvious examples is maintaining safety at sea. We also share a desire to defeat violent extremist organizations such as ISIS. We must be prepared to work with Russian leaders if they want to collaborate responsibly on these or other issues of mutual interest.

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To do so, we can and should meet with our Russian counterparts when possible and prudent. Track-two diplomatic efforts, international symposiums, and other forums that provide such opportunities should also be encouraged.

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Of course, diplomacy alone is unlikely to be sufficient. To encourage responsible behavior by Russia we must engage from a position of strength, not weakness. Improving our current force posture in Europe will demonstrate our strength and thereby deter Russia from further adventurism. The first step in improving our force posture is to leverage allied navies to enhance our maritime security. We must work directly with our NATO partners to help them develop the capabilities and capacity to operate seamlessly together and with the United States, respond to contingencies, and protect key maritime infrastructure.

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